Climate Change 2001:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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Figure 3-2: Scaled outputs of mean December-February (left) and June-August (right) temperature and precipitation change by the 2050s relative to 1961-1990 over land grid boxes representing Central North America (top), Southern Africa (middle), and Southern Asia (bottom) from eight simulations with five AOGCMs (experiments b, c, e, h, and a four-member ensemble from t; see Table 3-5). Simulations assume forcing by greenhouse gases but not aerosols, and are standardized according to the climate sensitivity of each AOGCM. Lines connect four points for each simulation, all in the same order from the origin: B1-low, B2-mid, A1-mid, A2-high. Each point represents the standardized regional changes in climate from the AOGCM, linearly scaled according to the global warming estimated with a simple climate model for one of four preliminary SRES marker emissions scenarios (B1, B2, A1, and A2) and a value of the climate sensitivity (low = 1.5°C; mid = 2.5°C, and high = 4.5°C). Also plotted are ±1 and ±2 standard deviation ellipses from the 1400-year HadCM2 and 1000-year GFDL unforced simulations, which are used to indicate natural multi-decadal variability and are orientated according to the correlation between modeled 30-year mean temperature and precipitation. Results from two other AOGCMs did not extend to the 2050s (Carter et al., 2000).

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