Climate Change 2001:
Working Group III: Mitigation
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Figure 2-12: Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry, historical development from 1900 to 1990 and in 40 SRES scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1). The range is large in the base year 1990, as indicated by an “error” bar, but is excluded from the indexed future emissions paths. The dashed time-paths depict individual SRES scenarios and the blue shaded area the range of scenarios from the literature (as documented in the SRES database). The median (50th), 5th, and 95th percentiles of the frequency distribution are shown. The statistics associated with the distribution of scenarios do not imply probability of occurrence (e.g., the frequency distribution of the scenarios in the literature may be influenced by the use of IS92a as a reference for many subsequent studies). The 40 SRES scenarios are classified into six groups. Jointly the scenarios span most of the range of the scenarios in the literature. The emissions profiles are dynamic, ranging from continuous increases to those that curve through a maximum and then decline. The coloured vertical bars indicate the range of the four SRES scenario families in 2100. Also shown as vertical bars on the right are the ranges of emissions in 2100 of IS92 scenarios, and of scenarios from the literature that apparently include additional climate initiatives (designated as “intervention” scenarios emissions range), those that do not (“non-intervention”), and those that cannot be assigned to either of these two categories (“non-classified”).

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